Ntalo ya caoutchouc naturel ezongi na mbula oyo, kasi ba producteurs bakobunda mpo na décennie mosusu na ba prix ya nse, ba insiders ya industrie balobi.
Atako bomati ya 16% ya ntalo ya ba futures ya caoutchouc international kino sik’oyo na mobu oyo, caoutchouc ezali naino mosika na kobima ya solo na zando ya ours, kolanda baye basanganaki na zando.
From March 2009 to February 2011, rubber prices experienced a surge, during which they rose as much as 240%.Producers have also been expanding acreage aggressively during a two-year period of rising prices, and now the supply glut is a problem that will be difficult to eliminate in the short term as the rubber trees move from the growth cycle to the tapping cycle.Although rubber prices have risen this year, they are still down as much as 70% uta na ba hautes na bango ya 2011.
Bokeli ya caoutchouc na mokili mobimba ekolanda koleka bosenga ya ba pneus kino 2027-2028, mpe bikolo ya babimisi ekozala kaka na ntalo moke mpo na mibu zomi mosusu, engebene na David Shaw, mokambi ya ba pneus Industrie Research UK, oyo ezali kolandela industrie wuto mibu 30, engebene na Bloomberg.Ntalo ya nse ekokitanisa ba acres, ekozwa mbula zomi mpo na komata ya ntalo mingi{3}}
Soki ba producteurs ya caoutchouc basalelaki 10-Mbula ya mbula na ba mbula ya ebandeli mpo na ko prévoir demande ya mikolo ekoya mpe koyeba acres na ndenge esengeli, ba effets ya mabe ya mbala moko mpe ba prix ekozala relativement stable te, selon Shaw.alobaki ete ba gouvernements na ba pays oyo ezali kobimisa caoutchouc esengeli kozala na bokebi mingi na gestion ya acreage mpo na kozua équilibre entre offre mpe demande na mikolo ekoya{2}}
Caoutchouc naturel ekatamaki sima ya kolona mpo na 5-7 mbula, eleko ya rendement ya likolo ezalaki 10-15 mbula, mpe eleko ya kokata mpe kobongisa ezalaki 25-35 mbula.Ezali biloko ya sipesiale, na likolo ya mai ezali biloko ya bilanga, na nse ya mai ezali biloko ya industrie, kasi ezali mpe na ba attributs ya makasi ya mosolo{5}}
Thaïlande ezali mobimisi ya monene na mokili mobimba, oyo ezali na 36 % ya biloko oyo euti na mokili mobimba, engebene makambo oyo esalemaki liboso oyo euti na Institut ya bolukiluki ya Hongyuan Futures.Chine ezali pene na 40 % ya biloko oyo ezali na caoutchouc naturel na mokili mobimba mpe koleka 70 % ya yango esalelamaka na mosala ya kosala ba pneus, kasi bokoli ya kobimisama ya ba pneus ya Chine ekiti longwa na 20 % na 2010 tii na cent cent kino na 2010 tii na cent cent 300 tii na cent cent 3.
Faced with the mismatch between supply and demand, it is difficult for natural rubber to reduce production on the same scale as crude oil.Salvatore Pinizzotto, secretary-general of the International Rubber Study Group, said that for Rubber farmers in producing countries, the lack of alternative sources of income means they need to keep producing even at today's low prices, further exacerbating the oversupply.
Zhu Ziyue ya Hongyuan Futures Research Institute mpe amonisaki ete esika ya kolona ezali mpasi mpo na kobima nokinoki na zando ya ours mpe esika ya kolona mbala mingi etondi na zando ya ngɔmbɛ, oyo esalaka ete ezala mpasi mpo na kosilisa mpasi ya inventaire ya caoutchouc.Amonisaki ete:
Ya liboso, caoutchouc naturel ezali na cycle ya bokoli ya molayi mpe cycle ya bokati ya caoutchouc ya molayi, yango wana production mpe inventaire ekoki kobongisama na tango te mpo na bozali ya cycle ya molai. na zando ya ngombe, kolona ezalaka na tendance ya kokende mbangu liboso, tango ezali na zando ya ours, esika ya kolona ezali mpasi mpo na kobima noki.
Ya mibale, 90% ya bisika ya bokeli caoutchouc na mokili mobimba ezali na Sud-Est ya Asie, oyo esalemi na lolenge ya bilanga ya mike mpe ekabolami na ndenge ya bopanzani. Lisusu, makoki ya bosaleli ya politiki ya etuka oyo ezali ya bolembu, kosala ete ezala mpasi mpo na kososola mbongwana ya ngambo ya bopesi oyo ekokani na bomoko ya ndako mpe na makasi.
Na suka, kokata caoutchouc ezali source économique oyo ba agriculteurs ya caoutchouc ba dépendre pona survie na bango, pe coût ya entretien ya suka ya plantation ya caoutchouc ezali na se. Atako ezali na phénomène ya ko remplacer kolona to pona ba occupations misusu, ezali nanu na moyen mosusu te ya kopesa flux ya mbongo ya stable pona ba agriculteurs ya caoutchouc, yango wana bakopona facilement te ko abandonner{1}}