Kozala na miso te na "Cycle ya sika ya masuwa" – makambo misato oyo etali zando ya masuwa na mibu 10 oyo ekoya
James Frew, analyste supérieur na Maritime Strategies International (MSI), consultation ya navigation ya Royaume-Uni, amonisi ete restructuration économique ya Chine, avancement na technologie ya exploration ya pétrole mpe gaz, mpe ba exigences ya transition ya carbone moke mpo na expédition ezali ko changer état actuel ya industrie ya expédition: Défi ezali mpe libaku malamu.
In the five years after 2003, ship operations and shipbuilding orders continued to soar as the previous round of booming economic growth. But since then the shipping market has been in a decade of depression. By 2019, most of the shipping and offshore industries have entered an upward phase, and shipbuilding capabilities have been adjusted, which laid the foundation for the development of the new shipbuilding market.
Zando ya bopesi molunge esalaki ete bato mingi mpe mingi bandima ete zando ya masuwa ekoti na cycle ya sika ya botomboli, kasi mongongo oyo ezali koboya makambo misato ya ntina oyo ekoki kozala na bopusi na mosala ya masuwa na mibu zomi oyo ekoya.
Bokoli ya bosenga ya bamasuwa ya masuwa ezali na makambo nyonso. Longola bomati ya bokeli ya petrole ya mayi ya makasi na Amerika Latine mpe mbongwana ya gaz ya shale na Etats-Unis, bozongisi ya bokeli ya petrole na bassin ya Atlantique ezali mpe kotambwisa bokeli ya zando ya ba tankers mpe ya transport ya GNL.
Ba analystes ba ndimi ete bomati ya bosenga ya ba bateaux-citerne oyo euti na bomati ya bokeli ya petrole ya Atlantique ezali liboso ya bopusi ya mombongo ya petrole ya brut oyo ekoki kozala, oyo ezali na litomba mpo na zando ya ba bateaux-citerne, mpe ba chantiers navals mpe bankolo masuwa bakoki koboya pression ya programme ya bopesi kilo.
Lisusu, bopanzani ya zando ya ntango mokuse oyo euti na ndelo ya soufre ya OMO2020 ekozala na bopusi malamu na zando ya ba citernes, kaka te mpo ete biloko ya esika ya distillat ya mboka ekotombolama mpo na kosala ete bopesi esansi ezala, kasi lisusu mpo ete petrole ya carburant ya soufre ya likolo ekoki kotekama te lokola esansi ya masuwa na Europe. Ezali mpe na ntina mpo na kokabola mafuta ya likolo ya Europe mpo na ba preigneries na sudi-ouest} na sudi-ouest}
Although the natural gas (LNG) market is not affected by the IMO 2020 sulfur limit, the US shale gas production changes are still important. At the same time, due to China's consideration of environmental factors, LNG is used as a substitute for coal, resulting in rapid growth in demand. Although trade growth has been guaranteed in the next two years, fleet construction is still needed to meet an improved profitability environment.
Kasi, ezali na mwa makama na zando oyo. mpo na botiami mosolo na zando ya GNL na 2016 mpe 2017, ekanisami ete bomati ya makoki ya GNL ekokatama kati ya mobu 2022 mpe 2024. na maloba mosusu, atako bosenga ya makoki ya ntango molai mpo na zando ya GNL ezali stable, na nse ya transport ya LNG 2 na kati ya biloko ya liboso oyo ekoki kobima na nzela ya liboso ya 2.
Na oyo etali situation actuelle ya développement économique ya Chine, ba analystes bazali na optimisme te na oyo etali ba perspectives ya développement ya marché sèche ya bulk. Ba importations ya charbon ya Chine emati, mpe ba importations ya minerais ya fer ekoki kozala na sommet na ba mbula mibale oyo ekoya. Malgré demande ya ba grains ya grain mpe ya ba petits en gros, ba transporteurs ya minene bakozala na difficulté ya ko accéder na ba marchés mingi{2}}
Sima ya spin-off ya industrie ya fabrication ya Chine, distribution interne ezali très extensive, mpe ezali na nombre monene ya capacité ya outsourcing ya Europe mpe ya Amerika na Asie mbula na mbula. ba facteurs oyo etombolaki mingi bokoli ya monene ya commerce ya ba conteneurs, mpe bokoli ya Asie-Europe mpe trans-pacifique mombongo eleki mosika transatlantique. lokola commerce restreint{6} lokola trade{6} lokola restreint{6}}
Kasi, soki tokokanisi yango na révolution ya gaz ya shale mpe na industrialisation ya Chine, mikakatano oyo ememami na mbongwana ya carbone moke ezali kutu makasi koleka. industrie ya masuwa ekoki kokutana kaka mpe esengeli kosala rôle.
According to MSI research, if you do not take action quickly, shipping carbon emissions will increase from 800 million tons in 2018 to 1.1 billion tons in 2030. Analysts believe that ship slowdowns—especially old ones—can help improve the status quo while helping to support ship revenues and guide more new ship demand. If the fleet slows down, it may increase the order volume of 30 million tons ya masuwa; Soki flotte ekitisaki mbangu na ba trimestres mibale, ekomatisa 50 millions ya ba tonnes.
Likambo ya kokamwa, mosala ya masuwa endimi te kozwa mwango ya kosilisa makambo ya mbongwana ya carbone moke. Ata ndelo ya mbangu oyo ebongi ekoki kozongisa bomoi na fleet ya mokili mobimba, kozongisa bomoi na mosala ya botongi masuwa, kokokisa mokumba ya bato ya mosala ya masuwa mpe kokitisa ba émissions ya carbone.