Makoki ya kobimisa caoutchouc na mokili mobimba ezali naino likoló .
The report of the Natural Rubber Production Federation (ANRPC) at the end of April updated the expectations for rubber planting and production in 2019. In terms of planting, the new planting area of rubber forest reached its peak in 2012, and the total planting area reached a high of 12.2 million hectares in 2016. However, as the price of rubber has fallen year after year, the new planting area has also declined.
Atako etando ya sika ya kolona caoutchouc ekiti mwa moke na mibu mibale mileki, etando mobimba ya kolona ya bazamba ya caoutchouc ezali naino likolo. engebene na ba données oyo ANRPC ezelaka, etando ya kolona ya ba mboka minene ya ANPPC ekotikala na pene na 12 millions ya ba hectares na mbula oyo. na mibu oyo euti koleka, kolona ya caoutchouc{ planting ya ba régions ya mokili mobimba mpo na kokende na ba régions ya Afrique mpe ya Afrique mpe ya Afrique mpe ya Afrique na ba régions ya Sud-Afrique mpe na ba régions ya Sud-Afrique mpe na ba régions ya Sud-Afrique mpe na ba régions afriques ya Sud mpe na ba régions ya Afrique du Sud mpe na ba régions afriques ya Sud mpe na ba régions ya Sud-Latitudes ya Afrique mpe ya Afrique du Sud mpe ya Afrique du Sud. Ezali kokoba kokola, mpe makoki ya kobimisa caoutchouc na mokili mobimba ezali naino na nivo ya likolo.
Soki totali bozelami ya ANRPC mpo na etando ya bokati ya ba Etats membres, etando ya polele na 2019 esengelami kokoma na 928.99 millions ya ba hectares, bomati ya 2.48%. Atako ntalo ya caoutchouc ezalaki moke, esika ya bofungoli oyo ekobaki komata na 2019 esimbaki lisungi ya komata mpo na kobimisa caoutchouc.
On the other hand, the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on future rubber production is still worthy of continued attention. In the years that the area of open cutting continued to grow, in 2016, overall production declined due to persistent high temperature and drought in Southeast Asia. In 2019, Southeast Asian countries may again explode similar climate problems, which will have certain impact on future rubber output.
Engebene na ba données ya lelo, ba pays membres ya minene babimisaki total ya 1.872.400 tonnes ya caoutchouc na sanza mibale ya liboso, bokiti ya 6.63% mbula na mbula. Impact ya El Niño ezali komonana. trimestre ya liboso ezali na saison ya liboso ya caoutchouc{10} ya ba mboka oyo ezali na kati ya ba pays ya mibale na oyo ya mibale na kati ya ba mboka ya mibale mpe ya mibale ya mibale mpe ya mibale.
Thaïlande, Indonésie mpe Malaisie ezali ba grands exportateurs ya caoutchouc. Na mibu mibale oyo eleki, bokeli ya caoutchouc emati mbula na mbula. Kasi, na nzela ya milende ya bikolo misato na 2018, volume ya exportation ekiti na 10.125.59 million ya ba tonnes, bokiti ya 2{*}88%.
Motango mobimba ya ba exportations ya caoutchouc na ba mboka misato ya minene oyo ezali kobimisa na mobu oyo emati mingi te. Na mikolo ekoya, engebene na Comité ya caoutchouc tripartite (ITRC) ya Indonésie, Indonésie mpe Malaisie, "plan ya tonnage ya exportation restricté" ekobima kobanda na sanza ya minei. Volume ya exportation ezelamaki mpo na kokita na 240,{3} tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali tons ezali na ba tons. Bobimisi ya bikolo misato ya minene ya ANPC ekolanda kozala pene na 10 millions ya ba tonnes na mobu oyo.
Na ebandeli ya mobu 2019, Organisation nationale de recherche en caoutchouc (IRSG) esakolaki ete bosenga ya caoutchouc na mokili mobimba ekomata na 2.5% kino pene na 30 millions ya ba tonnes na mobu oyo, oyo bosenga ya caoutchouc naturel ekomaki na 14.2 millions ya ba tonnes, bomati ya 2,6%. Na point de vue ya ba données, taux ya croissance ya demande ya caoutchouc naturel ekiti soki tokokanisi yango na mbula eleki.
The current terminal consumption situation partially confirms the expectations of the IRSG at the beginning of the year. Due to the poor sales of the two major consumer markets in China and the United States, the global automotive industry is currently welcoming a wave of "reductions". As a major source of demand for rubber, tires have also encountered bottlenecks in this year's development. As a major producer, China has not only encountered many double-reverse policies Yango epekisi bobimisi biloko na mboka mopaya, kasi industrie na yango ya ba pneus na kati ya mboka esili mpe kokangama.
Na likambo ya bokiti ya bokoli ya bopesi mpe ya bosenga, ICSG ezali kozela ete bopesi mpe bosenga ekozala kaka na moboko ya bokatikati na mobu oyo. Kasi, ba stocks ya mokili mobimba ezali naino relativement ya likolo{1}} caoutchouc ezali naino na eteni ya bolongoli na mobu oyo, mpe kotalaka makoki ya bokeli ya likolo ya caoutchouc naturel, pression ya komata na ntalo ya caoutchouc ezali naino relativement monene{2}}
B Météo domestique to ba facteurs clés .
Na bambula oyo euti koleka, Chine ekobaki kotya likebi na komikokisa na caoutchouc, yango wana etando ya kolona etikalaki na nivo ya likolo. Kasi, Yunnan mpe Hainan, bisika ya minene oyo ebimisaka caoutchouc na Chine, banyokwamaki na ba degrés ya kokauka ekeseni na mbula oyo. Ekanisami ete bokeli ya mboka ekokita na nse ya esika ya kolona ya lelo.
Na botali ya boyei na mboka, lokola volume ya boyei ya biloko oyo ekomaki na likolo na 2017, volume ya importation ya caoutchouc naturel ekiti. Moko ya bantina ezali bokiti ya bozangisi ya terminal, mpe mosusu ezali ete ba importateurs bazali na likoki mingi ya kosangisa mpo na bokimi ya mpako mpe bantina mosusu. caoutchouc naturel ekotisami na kombo ya colle. Importation ya April} ezali lisusu na mwa moke te mbula oyo ya mbula oyo4 na mbula oyo4 na mbula na yango. 650,000 ba tonnes, bokiti ya 70,000 ba tonnes soki tokokanisi yango na eleko moko na mbula eleki.
Bopesi na mboka mpe na mokili mobimba ya caoutchouc synthétique emati relativement na mwa bambula oyo eleki. kati na yango, na oyo etali bokeli ya mboka, taux ya bokoli ya bokeli ya caoutchouc ya Chine ezwaki esika ya liboso na mokili, mpe bokoli ya bobimisi ya bosangisi na 2018 emati lisusu, ekomi na 7.1%.
Na oyo etali boyei na mboka, caoutchouc synthétique ematisaki niveau ya importation na yango na niveau ya sika mpo na évitation ya impôts ya ba importateurs. na 2018, total ya 4.41 millions ya ba tonnes ya caoutchouc synthétique ekotisama, oyo mélange ya caoutchouc naturel mpe caoutchouc synthétique ekomaki na 2{7}}95 millions ya ba tonnes. Kobanda na sanza ya yambo kino na sanza ya minei ya mobu oyo, boyei ya caoutchouc synthétique ezalaki na état ya malamu, mpe volume ya importation ya caoutchouc synthétique ekomaki na 1,47 millions ya ba tonnes, bomati ya pene na 8%.
On April 28th, the General Administration of Customs issued a notice on the classification of "mixed rubber", requiring a thorough investigation of the mixture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber. It is no longer allowed to use synthetic rubber with only a small amount of synthetic rubber on the surface to synthesize rubber. The name of the import. On May 6 this year, the customs department discussed with the downstream tire manufacturers about the relevant issues of Mokanda ya liyebisi. Nsima ya kososola bosenga ya basali mpo na kokitisa mpako, bazalaki kaka kotingama na ezaleli ya kolanda na bozindo liyebisi. uta na esika ya botali politiki, ekoki kozala na mwa botomboli na ntalo ya caoutchouc naturel na mikolo ekoya{7}}
Soki totali na niveau ya caoutchouc mobimba na sanza minei ya liboso, bomati ya bopesi ya caoutchouc synthétique ememi na bomati moko boye ya bopesi ya solo ya caoutchouc na ndako. Kasi, sima ya kobimisama ya liyebisi ya caoutchouc hybride oyo etali yango, esengeli kosala attention makasi na ba données ya importation ya douane ya caoutchouc naturel mpe caoutchouc synthétique na mikolo ekoya{1}}
C consommation ya se ezali malamu te .
Taux ya bokoli ya industrie ya pneu interne ekitisaki mokemoke, mpe bokoli ya production cumulative na mbula eleki ezalaki kaka 1%. na 2019, industrie ya pneu esimbamaki na ba facteurs lokola ba politiques mpe surcapacité. mpo na mbala ya liboso na mibu 20, production ekiti. kobanda na janvier tii na sanza ya minei.
Domestic tire exports have been greatly affected by the double-counter policy of the United States at the end of last year and the United States at the beginning of this year. This year, the export volume of all-steel and semi-steel tires has been reduced to varying degrees. The export data of the overall tires performed well temporarily. In the first four months of this year, the cumulative export of tires was 158.11 millions, bomati ya mbula na mbula ya 2,49%.
Na tango oyo, ba données ya exportation eyebisami te na sanza oyo. Ekanisami ete volume ya exportation ya pneus na kati ya mboka ya ntango mokuse ekobatela kaka bokoli moko boye, kasi volume ya exportation ya mikolo ekoya na ba pneus ya Etats-Unis ezali na elikya te. na mobimba, situation ya ba pneus ya mbula oyo mpe situation ya exportation ezali malamu te, industrie ya ba pneus e introduire na décennie monene{3}}
Na 2018, industrie ya mituka ya mboka ekoti na malili ya malili. volume ya production mpe ya vente cumulative na mbula mobimba elakisaki ba degrés ya bokiti ekeseni, mpe ba marques ya mituka ndenge na ndenge mpe ekutanaki na ba lawoffs ya minene na Chine{3}} bokiti ya production ya mituka mpe ya koteka na mbula oyo ezali kaka kokoba. volume ya liboso mpe ya koteka na 10. 12.12% respectivement. Bokiti mobimba ya mosala ya mituka ezali malamu te mpo na kobimisa mpe koteka ba pneus ya mboka.
As a whole, the global supply capacity is sufficient, and the downstream demand is general. The overall supply and demand for the whole year is still relatively balanced. Due to high inventory and high production capacity, the upward pressure on rubber prices will be higher in the future. However, since May, weather and customs policies are driving the price of rubber to oscillate. In the short term, the future price of rubber will continue to rise.
Na bokuse, bosambisi na biso ya monene ezali ya ntango mokuse ya ntango molai, kasi ekoki kozala na likama ya bomati ya makasi ya ntango mokuse. météo ya mikolo ekoya, bokɔti ya caoutchouc mixte na mboka, ba données ya exportation ya pneu mpe politiki ya mboka na nzela ya nse na mikili minene ya Sud-Est ya Asie ekozala makambo ya minene mpo na mbongwana ya makasi ya ntalo ya caoutchouc, oyo esengeli kolandelama penepene.
D Analyse ya stratégie ya option .
Engebene na ntango molai oyo etɛkamaki na boumeli ya ntango molai, kasi ekoki kozala na bokóli makasi ya kosambisama, na kotalela motuya ya bosukisi ya zando na mokolo ya 31 Mai, mayele oyo etali yango esalemi boye:
Stratégie conservatrice : Na kotalaka zando ya mikolo ekoya ya ntango mokuse, ezali na probabilité moko boye ya komata. okoki kotalela kosimba mbongo mpo na mwa ntango, kozela mbongwana ya météo na Sud-Est ya Asie mpe ba données ya import ya caoutchouc mixte ya Chine mpe ba données ya importation ya caoutchouc ya Chine{2}} Soki météo ebaluki malamu mpe ba données ya import ya caoutchouc na kati ya mboka ekiti moke, sima okoki kotalela koteka option ya appel likolo ya 44 contrats ya 44 409 mpe motuya ya ntango ya 44 409 mpe ya motuya ya 44.
Stratégie agressive: Okoki kosalela option ya kotia mpo na kotonga stratégie ya proportionnel ya kopanzana. Nsima ya baisse ya moke, okoki kaka kozwa mwa mosolo moke sima ya ntalo ya cible emati, mpe koboya risque ya bomati ya makasi ya ntango mokuse.
The strategy consists of buying a RU1909 put option with a strike price of 11,750 yuan/ton and selling a RU1909 put option with a three-handed strike price of 10,750 yuan/ton. The plan is held for a long period of time (1 month - 2 months). ). According to the closing price of the night market on May 31, the closing price of RU1909 is 11,940 yuan / ton, the price of RU1909P11750 is 483 yuan / ton, the price of RU1909P10750 is 184 yuan / ton, the net royalty income generated by each combination of the ratio spread strategy It is about 690 yuan. Investors can adjust the strike price corresponding to the put put option according to their risk Bolingi.
Ntina monene ya kotonga mwango ya kopalanganisa nzela ya kopanzana ya nzela ya kotya ezali ya kozwa motuya ya ntango, mpe bozongisi ezali likolo ntango ntalo ya nsé ekiti mwa moke. ata soki ntalo ya cible emati makasi, motango moke ya mosolo ya stable ekoki kozwama, mpe libaku ya litomba mobimba ezali monene.
Through the strategy closing profit curve under different time and price, it can be seen that when the price falls slightly, the maturity gain is obviously enhanced, and even if the target price rises sharply, it can still obtain a fixed income of 690 yuan when it expires. Overall, the longer the holding of the strategy portfolio, the greater the probability of gaining revenue. Although the maximum risk is controllable, if the price drops sharply in the short term, there will Encore être un grand perte. Point de équilibre ya stratégie ezali autour ya 10.250 yuans/ton. Yango wana, tango prix ekiti na se ya 10.750 yuan, esengeli ezala fondés na événement mpe ba citations ekoki kozala considérée pona liquidation.
Na oyo etali marge, tango prix objectif ekiti makasi, marge oyo esalemi na stratégie oyo ekomata. e estimé que occupation maximale ya capital na période ya opération moko moko ya stratégie ezali 45,000 Yuan. na oyo etali revenu, soki prix objectif emati to etikali inchanged, rendement annualisé ezali soki 6{5}}13 13% ya 13% soki 13% na 13% ya 13% soki 13% ya ubjectif soki 13% ya ubjectif soki 13% na ubjectif 13% umellez 13% umellez 13% 13% umellez 13% umellez 13% 13% umellez 13% umellete 13% umellete 13% 13% umellete 13% umellete 13% umellete 13% umellete 13% usait 13% umelled ubjective factured 13). Rendement ezali soki 28,36%.
Risk warning: Selling options have a large margin for the margin, and there is a risk of chasing when the price of the target falls sharply in the short term. When the price falls below 11,250 yuan/ton, please pay attention to your own use of funds. If the price falls below RMB 10,750/ton in the short term, it is necessary to consider the possibility of liquidation according to the actual situation.